Trader Update: The Breakout Trifecta

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In my last post - Breakout Trifecta, AAPL, POT, V I mentioned 3 stocks that I thought me poised for breakouts. So let’s see what happened this week.

I actually didn’t convince myself to buy it for a trade. I still think it is a good long-term investment. I’m a trader so that makes me yawn. Passed on Apple and that was a good decision. The World Wide Developer Conference didn’t wow anyone. All the news was essentially out: a new iPhone with 3g & GPS, an apps store, and lower pricing. There wasn’t anything spectacular that wasn’t expected. Apple was trading around $185 when I posted. It is essentially right under that mark now. There was no volatility expansion to make my options trades profitable.

Grade: A - Stayed out. Didn’t miss anything here.

Potash (POT)

I mentioned that Potash had closed above resistance after bumping up against it quite a few times. Honestly I could have been a little more prudent and waited for another close above resistance. I felt confident this was the move I had been waiting for. I purchased some Sept 08 calls and up 25% on that position. I’m still holding. I believe there is more run before this stalls out.

The fertilizer story is a strong one. Every large contract that is getting signed is at higher and higher prices/ton. I was actually analyzing Agrium (AGU) and was considering buying it today. Unfortunately it got away from me. Agrium closed 8.65% higher today. I didn’t want to chase it. Agrium is a little more pricey than Potash. Before the opening bell, AGU raised its second-quarter outlook to between $2.80 per share and $3 per share citing higher pricing and strong retail/wholesale performance. Previous guidance had them earning between $1.90-2.20 for the quarter. Analysts are upping projections to $2.50.

I’m adding AGU to my watchlist. I do think it will have more upside. The question is which stock to bank on AGU or POT.

Grade: A - Anytime you’re making 30%+ return in a week that’s gotta be worth an A.

Visa (V)

I stated in my last post that this one might be premature. Well I was right. Unfortunately I opened a position and jumped the gun. Trying to time can be a killer. Wait for confirmation. Don’t do a Dax. Might be a good bounce play off support at $75. Short-term… stay away.

Grade: D - I didn’t wait for confirmation (that never came). I did cut my losses fairly quickly. For that I give myself a D. Maybe I can turn this trade again off $75… maybe.