Jul 12 2008

POT - Don’t Abandon Ship

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Some of you may have followed my June 30 trade and advice to get back into POT. And some of you may have gone through some frustration at my advice. I purchased my Calls when POT was at the $227 level. Since June 30, POT has dipped to as low as $197.17. That’s a $30 move of 15%. Ouch!

You may be wondering if I bailed on my position. Nope. I stood by my reasoning on my trades. Partly out of greed, but mainly out of my belief in my past trades and POT’s resiliency. I really didn’t see the big volume capitulation that would drive this stock lower and lower longer term. That’s not to say I wish I had. In an ideal world, I would have sold at a small gain and bought back at the bottom. I didn’t, but it isn’t a perfect world. I was fully invested in the market so I didn’t have the cash to add to my position. I was salivating at the downward move as a missed opportunity to build more position.

Yes POT went from $227 down to the $197 level. Over 2 weeks it went down and is back up to $221 and was as high as $224. That’s only down $3-6. Sometimes you have to stand your ground. Yes my position is still negative, but more in line with a normal intraday loss. It is a minimal paper loss right now.

I wait for confirmation on uptrends. I also wait for confirmation on downtrends. This time I didn’t feel the strength was there to take this stock down. Considering the broader market moves, POT held up quite reasonably.

As a side note I noticed my readership drop during this 2 week period. Now it is going back up. Just like stocks, I never got the volume drop confirmation in my readership and now it is approaching normal levels. To you traders following me and sticking with me… Bravo. To you other guys… stick around. I may have a few more trades you don’t want to miss.

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3 Comments on this post

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  1. Kevin H said:

    Great Blog!

    You bring up a great point. Many times traders will look for a confirmation of a uptrend before entering. But, it is equally important to wait for a confirmation on the downtrends when considering exiting.

    “I wait for confirmation on uptrends. I also wait for confirmation on downtrends.”

    July 12th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
  2. HongH said:

    I also stuck it out, I like you also didn’t have enough capital to buy at 200.

    July 14th, 2008 at 8:45 am
  3. Matthew Bush said:

    Great Post - I know nothing of trading options… wish I did, but don’t have the time.

    November 5th, 2008 at 3:24 pm

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