Amazon’s Unbox has a nice tie-up with Tivo. Since I just purchased a Tivo this is of interest to me. However from a business perspective I think Apple will lose many potential customers. iTunes is a powerhouse in online distribution. I doubt Unbox will be a perfect substitute for that distribution channel.

The whole situation made me think. My Tivo gets updates periodically. I can even have other “server” type apps running on my Windows machine that my Tivo can talk to. The point is its software updatable. If Apple did the same with their Apple TV they could potentially turn it into a DVR system. You could buy your music/movies online. You could record your shows. It would be a killer box. DVR’s have been around a long time. Tivo is great. However I find the Tivo to be a bit slow in processing. It doesn’t have the strength of Apple’s brand or its cult following.

If Apple bought Tivo, they’d gain access to all its current subscribers. Apple would no doubt pump up the hardware with their own design. They could also replace the interface completely with their own clean design. Apple could do it. Actually the best thing would be for Apple to license Tivo. After all its not the hardware that makes Tivo great. Its just software. Will it happen? Probably not. My guess is Apple doesn’t want you to DVR stuff when they can sell it to you.

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I know you want to rush out and validate this rumor. You can go to the AT&T site and find an iPhone near you. And check out that store in the picture. Where the heck is that store? I swear I’ve seen it on the Jetsons.

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The price plans for the iPhone are officially out. Pricing seems very fair. I love how the data plan prices are coming down (somewhat). I really expected AT&T to commence a full-blow pillage of the consumer with this phone. I guess they did that with the phone as I doubt AT&T is even subsidizing any portion of the phone other than marketing. Observers are pointing out that T-Mobile and Sprint are likely to be the most hurt. Sprint has a gravy train in its fast EVDO network, with data accounting for over 16% of revenue. Both Sprint and T-Mobile have the young, early adoptors that are likely to switch carriers for an uber-cool device like the iPhone.

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According Businessweek, Apple plans to have 3 million iPhones ready for sale on launch day.  In other news, AT&T has hired crowd control for its stores in anticipation of the rowdy crowds that will follow.

An old stodgy AT&T now has products that cause crowds?  This just shows you.  The big goliaths, no matter how slow have the billions to survive and if they decide to move can move big (but still slow).  This explains why the hot, new startups with the hot, fresh products get swallowed up.  Hey I’ll start a company in my basement and sell it for millions any day.

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In case you’re wondering why all the Apple love today, I’ll sum it up.

1. Bought Apple options Friday @ $23.70
2. Sold Apple options today @ $24.30 or a profit of $60/contract
3. Dax is )

By the way, I see Apple had a slight dip in after hours trading. I’ll be picking up some more Apple options tomorrow morning – Jan $105 Calls [QAAAA] to be exact.

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It’s official.  June 29th.  The iPhone ads are up on the Apple website.

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Some time ago I told my readers I would buy an Apple put based on a technical reversal and overall weakness in the stock. That trade went sour. I bought too early before I had confirmation on the charts. As a result the stock went 3 points higher and squeezed me out of my put. I can only take so much pain. I took my loss and moved on.

Today I looked at the chart and I noticed the RSI had become flat and later turned downwards. I jumped on it and immediately purchased some puts.

This is what I should have waited for. I underestimated the momentum retail investor in Apple stock the first time. This time, I pounced after confirmation.  I fully expect another short-trading opportunity in the next few days.  I believe this guy is headed back towards its last support (around $101).

The Trade

I traded the July 105 Puts (QAASA)

• 9:42amEST – Purchased QAASA @ 4.20/c0ntract
• 11:07am EST – Sold QAASA @ 5.20/contract
• Profit = $100/contract in 1hr 25mins

This is the trade I should have had last time.

The lesson here is to be patient and allow the chart to develop.

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